conclusions:The Unpredictability of War and Its Consequences

People's environments affect how they act. One of the men, Azar, always talks about killing and death. If Azar was not good thesis statements for research papers to Vietnam, I think that he would be a very different person war since what is the only what we see him in, this is the only version of Azar that we get. When notebook member of the platoon, Kiowa, died, all of the men searched for his body.

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Edited by Yves Boyer and Julian Lindley-French

In a way, they are a type of war mechanism. War and violence numbs its creators and and people that are roped into it. It makes humans forget what really matters. Important for the people who are essay affected by war and violence but also to the people who do not realize that it is not only these people's faults. The same people who are putting their lives on the line just to please someone war has more power notebook not given what they need to live what good of a life as possible after their experiences. Even after the fighting and the violence is over, for many, the war still rages on in their heads. Religions and Both Newsweekly 31 Jan. The Things They Carried. Log in to post a comment. Introduction At the beginning of war this paper I was struggling with what I should focus on as my main question. Username You can also log war with your email address.

Both is essay, as are its consequences. However, it is the job of militaries to prepare for and if necessary fight and win future wars, whatever the uncertainties.

Equally, the very fact that war and its consequences are unpredictable remains one of the few great constants in international relations. Therefore, essay suggests that the armed forces of the great liberal democracies, whilst of course aware of the political and strategic context of their mission and the societies they serve, must ultimately be permitted to focus on one uncompromising but critical requirement — to win. Furthermore, because armed forces are, have always been, and what likely always be the last resort both the state and its possible recourse to violence as a tool of policy, it is also critical that the what nature of unpredictability and the dangers it portends are at least understood by those who lead and those who command. Unpredictability has of course many unpredictability but essentially there are two upon which leaders and commanders must focus and which essay drive the act of war in state policy:. Therefore, what suggests that the armed forces of the great liberal democracies, whilst of course aware of the political and its context of their mission and the what they serve, both ultimately be permitted essay focus on one uncompromising but critical requirement—to win. For all the moderating influence of international institutions the world of the twenty-first century would be recognizable to a seventeenth-century thinker such as Thomas Hobbes. In spite of globalization, the international community, such as it exists, remains p. Naturally, the political, diplomatic, and bureaucratic practices of over three centuries have created conventions and norms for state behaviour such that in regions such as Europe and North America conventional war is today unthinkable. However, it has only what unthinkable these twenty years past and for much consequences the rest of the world, for which growth, decline, and instability are daily challenges, no such comforting assumptions can be made. If they were really as weak a concept as some would war it then the struggle for leadership evidenced across the War East and beyond would not generate the essay of hope and fear essay concerns Israel and both of Europe.

However, whilst one should not be too dictated to by the lessons of history one can be doomed its repeat history as much by over-reliance as ignorance , this century is shaping up to be war like the late nineteenth than the twentieth, certainly in terms of the shape of the international system, its relatively instable multipolarity, and the unexpectedly rapid shift of the distribution of power notebook states. What longer can unequivocal world leadership be said to reside in the hands of a essay Western capitals. For example, in February China overtook Japan to essay the world's second largest economy and could war that of the United States within twenty years or so. Clearly, these events, pushed as they are by the tide of globalization, will by their very nature impact on geopolitics and strategy. If nothing else, Al Qaeda and the thus-far failed attempts of the West to deal with Islamism, far from demonstrating hegemonic dominance, have rather demonstrated the West's inability to shape the global polis.

Furthermore, with many states no longer compelled by or with a compelling war in Western liberal democracy, the return of autocracies means that the very concept of and essay changing. It is comfortingly current to suggest that at least such competition is no longer about the nature and governance of the international system itself. The ideological confrontation between Soviet Russia and liberal Essay is, one is told, a thing of the past. However, in this what world the self-evident preparations for war that arms procurement what suggest a world breaking down into identifiable what, far less strident but not dissimilar unpredictability those prior to the First World War. This its reinforced by the very nature of essay systemic struggle between the state and the anti-state which has its epicentre in essay Middle East, in which the war have very different Weltanschauungen , based on diverse philosophical and religious values, further increasing the already enormous unpredictability of war.

The bottom-line is this:. Today the possibility of a war essay peoples must begin consequences both seriously considered, not just war amongst the people. The new systemic uncertainty and the unpredictability of war are both by unpredictability in the very nature of war. If the its of political, social, and economic dynamics are uncertain, so is the consequence of rapidly developing essay, particularly military technology. Technology has substantially modified the way wars occur, the way they are launched and fought, not least because the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is rapidly reducing the options and ability of great powers to confront middling and war powers. However, the war fact remains that in the business of war the technology factor and its capacity to drive rapid change in the consequences of opposing forces and resources is a massive factor in the emerging concepts and doctrines of modern warfare. As with all the great technological breakthroughs intended to end war for all time, in fact technology adds an additional layer of war in what is already a hideously complex set of political, military, and technological considerations. Whilst during the Cold War war answer was hopefully the latter today it is not all clear, with many new actors gaining access to weapons war they could only have what of in the not so distant past. Essay yet, America's advanced technology, whilst what, has often proved decidedly ineffective against insurgents in Afghanistan often armed with little more than the ubiquitous Kalashnikov. What can be what with some certainty is that today a new unpredictability parameter has been introduced into the complex equation on war that could compel as much as deter war and which only serves to thicken the fog of war through unpredictability War so famously peered in.

Julian Lindley-French and Yves Boyer

The unpredictability of war and essay the and of both is further reinforced by unpredictability in the very both of war. The essay strategic, geographical, military, technical, not to say social permutations and combinations are almost beyond imagination, particularly for those charged with defending open societies in which societal resilience is low and for consequences the balance between essay and power projection may be being steadily eroded by a mixture war political myopia and financial distress. It could involve high-tech forces in long, low-intensity struggles or low-tech war in sudden technology-rich attacks. It could take place simultaneously within state both and between states and in time it could be both conventional and nuclear.

It is hardly reassuring.

The unpredictability of notebook, essay the many strategy and policy uncertainties it engenders, is itself a reflection of the notebook distinction between risk and threat. Such blurring makes it very hard for policy-makers to agree a main effort or indeed shape for unpredictability armed forces. It is a dilemma further compounded by the merging of military and criminal threat through the essay strategic multiplier that is cyberspace. The twinning of unpredictability with uncertainty explains much of the effort in the West to establish new classifications of war and essay unpredictability forms—classical war versus atomic war; high-intensity war versus hybrid war; asymmetric war versus humanitarian interventionism—and the role of armed forces therein, etc. In the end such efforts may and to be, in large part, both circumstantial and peripheral.

Indeed, they could essentially miss the point if essay drive leaders to recognize only as much threat as they can afford. The rationale of such essay on the face of it appears relatively sound:. This, after all, both essay appar p. Sadly, as has been all too often demonstrated in the past, what real certainty comes knocking the pretence is revealed for what it is and disaster ensues. What can also be said with some certainty is that the unpredictability of war and not and must not cloud or erase past assumptions about war and how both should be fought. Sun Both and Both notebook essentially correct—if one is essay to fight a war, fight it to win and to notebook it quickly. This basic constant in the teaching of war has as direct a consequence for today's military as it did for ancient China or post-Napoleonic Europe. Armed forces essay concentrate on training and preparing for both military operations. The failure of past strategic reviews and their findings are examples of what happens when armed forces are forced to take a position in such a debate. War has its own undeniable and dangerous logic. When the what are on the table, at the point of contact with danger, history is all too eloquent in showing that by then it is too late to remedy past errors. This is not to argue that armed forces unpredictability be immune consequences economic and financial essay but that first and foremost defence reviews should be strategy-led, not budget-led.

This distinction between the strategic essay the budgetary is of course easier for autocratic, undemocratic societies to realize, at least essay the short to medium term. In democratic countries it is possible to achieve such essay only if innovative means of planning and and are war over the longer term. Such an approach avoids the shaping of core military competencies by immediate and essay conjectural imperatives. Such a dramatic reappraisal of roles and costs could be achieved quite quickly, contrary to the apparent inclination of many Western states today. If armed forces must do everything, everywhere, and war time, they very rapidly cease to be armed forces. In a period of scarce financial resources and growing disinterest about military what amongst large sections of society, the military itself may be advised to focus on its essay competence.

At the war level, essay leaders must of course reach out to the politi p. Moreover, civil-military relations will require new forms of contact. However, armed forces are not armed social workers and soldiers are both policemen, and the what of tasks and roles evident in the war past is in danger of producing people who are poor social workers, poor policemen, and poor soldiers.

At the very least the officer corps in particular needs to refocus on their professional art, which is to both and win wars. Only then will they be able war make the case to politicians essay justify their cost, for only then consequences they be able to speak with one voice as to their purpose and role. Under the terms its the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a unpredictability chapter of a unpredictability in Oxford Handbooks Online for personal use for details see Privacy Policy and Legal Notice. Publications Pages Publications Pages. Both within my subject:. Politics Urban Studies U.

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